A Lotta Darn Criminals
How great is the likelihood of a Baltimorean being a hoodlum ?
Consider this:
70% of offenders are in the 20-40 age group. Over 90% are male.
Baltimore's male 20-30 population numbers about 44,845.
The Department of Corrections reports that 3,635 inmates, or 36.5%, are in that category.
If we assume the same percentage of Parole & Probation, that's 7,300.
If the State's Attorney plea bargains or nolle pro's about 12,000 cases only for nontechnical reasons not suggesting innocence, then 36% would amount to another 4,320 hoods on the street each year. STETs would increase that figure.
That's a total of 34% of all the males in the 20-30 age group.
One in three citywide.
Six of our 55 community planning areas together account for 30% of the criminality, yet a mere 15% of population. Another third of the city (Baltimore A) accounts for less than 3% of our criminality.
RESULT: Statistically, half of all young males from Baltimore B are likely to be criminals of recent incident.
Click HERE for a map of where the criminals are located in Baltimore.
Consider this:
70% of offenders are in the 20-40 age group. Over 90% are male.
Baltimore's male 20-30 population numbers about 44,845.
The Department of Corrections reports that 3,635 inmates, or 36.5%, are in that category.
If we assume the same percentage of Parole & Probation, that's 7,300.
If the State's Attorney plea bargains or nolle pro's about 12,000 cases only for nontechnical reasons not suggesting innocence, then 36% would amount to another 4,320 hoods on the street each year. STETs would increase that figure.
That's a total of 34% of all the males in the 20-30 age group.
One in three citywide.
Six of our 55 community planning areas together account for 30% of the criminality, yet a mere 15% of population. Another third of the city (Baltimore A) accounts for less than 3% of our criminality.
RESULT: Statistically, half of all young males from Baltimore B are likely to be criminals of recent incident.
Click HERE for a map of where the criminals are located in Baltimore.
posted by John Galt at 9:13 AM
6 Comments:
Hmmm... kind of confusing. Looks like you counted the 3,635 inmates in your calculations, right? But since they are incarcerated, you can't encounter them. See my calculations below to doublecheck, but to me it looks like a possible total of 11,620. That's 26% of 44,845. (27% if you subtract 3,635 from the general population, since they really shouldn't be counted there either.)
Calculations
DOC: 3,635 (but can't be counted since incarcerated)
When you say "assume the same percentage for Parole and Probation," are you saying you are applying DOC's 36.5 percent to some number you don't mention here, with a RESULT of 7,300? Let's assume so.
So, P&P: 7,300. (can be counted, since they are on the streets)
State's Attny nolle pros: 4,320. (can be counted, since they are on the streets).
Total of 7,300 + 4,320 = 11,620.
That's 26% of 44,845.
OK, so the incarcerated folk are tucked away for the moment. They still contribute to the percentage of rotten apples, yes ? They're just not in the same barrel with us at this moment.
Now, when you consider how many offenders get away with it because they're lower-level offenders or because they've gotten lucky with PBJ or witnesses/officers not showing, the numbers can get big. Then tack on for all the incidents that go unrecorded by police because they're lower-level incidents. Then tack on for all the incidents that go unreported by victims because the police won't do anything with it.
And you realize this is a really, really conservative lower bound on the number of bad guys.
If that's how you want to look at it. Personally, I'd only want to throw around the term "bad guys" for people who hurt and/or steal. How many of this number are simple drug possession arrests? Ever read David Simon's "The Corner"? THere's a really interesting passage in there about "the brown paper bag..."
HOWEVER, many of the more serious offenses with multiple charges are pled down to CDS in order to secure a conviction. That doesn't make them 'simple drug possession' in my book. That more likely makes them the highest charge filed, even if the standard of proof couldn't be met to the satisfaction of a Baltimore pro-criminal jury.
And there's the slippery slope: when the jury outcomes are so biased, how do you interpret the outcome of a criminal justice system ?
Innocent until proven guilty enough for a drugdealer's mother ?
Or guilt presumed under the conclusions of a reasonably well-trained jurist ?
Judge Glynn has stated many times that the juries here wouldn't know 'guilt beyond a reasonable doubt' if you hit them over the head with it.
I'm really lucky to have survived the singles scene!
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